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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

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40,395 ratings · 2,499 reviews
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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

4.85 40,395 ratings · 2,499 reviews
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Overview: The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

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Published July 5, 2005
ISBN 89158
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Philip E. Tetlock
About the Author
Philip E. Tetlock
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Philip E. Tetlock is the author of several novels. Originally from the East Coast, they now live in the Midwest with family. In addition to writing, Philip E. Tetlock enjoys gardening, cooking, and reading way past bedtime. Their work often explores the complexities of everyday life and human relationships.

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Lisa Reyes
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A profoundly satisfying read. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
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A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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A profoundly satisfying read. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars.
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Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
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Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
Margaret Baker
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
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Such a rich narrative. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Charles Moore
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William Lewis
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Exceeded all my expectations. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading.
Brian Thomas
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Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
William Scott
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A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Absolutely brilliant. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
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A highly sophisticated read. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
Michael Thomas
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A profoundly satisfying read. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Charles Rodriguez
Charles Rodriguez November 04, 2024
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
Mark Evans
Mark Evans September 26, 2025
I was completely blown away. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
Mary Baker
Mary Baker August 11, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Rebecca Phillips
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A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Sharon Johnson
Sharon Johnson September 20, 2025
Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A solid 4 stars from me.
Sarah Hill
Sarah Hill September 29, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Emily Edwards
Emily Edwards May 17, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Kimberly Mitchell
Kimberly Mitchell November 24, 2025
A very strong entry. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Daniel Hill
Daniel Hill November 01, 2025
I was completely blown away. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading.
Karen Garcia
Karen Garcia February 07, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
Deborah Mitchell
Deborah Mitchell July 19, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An effortless 5 stars.
Melissa Allen
Melissa Allen January 13, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A solid 4 stars from me.
Emily Flores
Emily Flores May 23, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Joshua Anderson
Joshua Anderson February 25, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Christopher Cruz
Christopher Cruz February 14, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
William Nguyen
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Mark Diaz
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
Carol Jones
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Such a rich narrative. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Rebecca Walker
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A very strong entry. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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I was completely blown away. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
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